In the range of possible Dem pickups, I'm considering any seat in which the Republican did not win by more than 60%. This is the Trump effect. There are two honorable mentions. 27 held by Blake Fahrenthold, who will not be running again due to "me too" issues. Also, 32, which did not have a Democratic in the race in 2016 but that HRC outperformed Trump. This woke the DCCC who will be investing in this race. Of course, the Trump effect is probably not as strong as the Texas Democratic Party effect.
US- House Seat | 2016 - R % | 2016 - D % | Incumbent |
6 | 58.3 | 39 | Joe Barton |
7 | 56.2 | 43.8 | John Culberson |
21 | 59 | 41 | Lamar Smith |
22 | 59.5 | 40.5 | Pete Olson |
23 | 48.3 | 47 | Will Hurd |
24 | 56.2 | 39.3 | Kenny Marchant |
25 | 58.3 | 37.7 | Roger Williams |
27 | 61.7 | 38.3 | Blake Farenthold |
31 | 58.4 | 36.5 | John Carter |
32 | 71.1 | 0 | Pete Sessions |
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